Thursday, February 09, 2006

Remember that economic boom in 1994?

Funny how times don't change, but headlines do. I remember the headlines in all the newspapers shortly after Clinton took office. The country was suddenly experiencing an economic revival, oddly right about the same time the Republicans took over Congress, but Clinton got all the press. The media were quick to point out that unemployment was only 6.5 percent, and GDP was climbing just above 3 percent in 1994. We were entering the age of the 'new economy', which was predicted to be self-sustaining... impervious to the cycles of bull and bear markets of yesteryear.

Clinton, along with Alan Greenspan, said "Full steam ahead!" and drove the economy, by way of interest rates, nearly off a cliff. By no small coincidence, Clinton handed the steering wheel to Bush immediately after yanking on the emergency brake. The economy has careened and shuddered. But now that the smoke has cleared, it's becoming clear that we will survive. However, the media are eagerly kicking through the debris, hoping to find bodies.

The current economic indicators point to an unemployment rate of 5.6 percent. GDP grew 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2004. It has since been revised to a very surprising 4.3 percent. If this were 10 years ago, the media would be jumping up and down screaming "champagne for everyone!" But we have a Republican in the White House. Because of that, the headlines ignore the economic figures and emphasize how some people might not lose their overpriced houses to foreclosure.

It's not surprising that consumers are reluctant to "Spend! Spend! Spend!" as they did during the Clinton administration. The media keeps telling them that they're going to be unemployed, or at least underemployed, until another Democrat sneaks into the White House (as Clinton did in 1992 with 43 percent of the popular vote).

The problem is that consumers still trust the mainstream media and it becomes a self-fulfilled prophecy. It's time for that to change, don't you think?

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